June 5, 2024

Global Retail E-Commerce Sales Will Reach $6.8 Trillion by 2028

Global retail e-commerce sales soared to $4.4 trillion in 2023, up from $1.3 trillion in 2014.

This means that 20% of global retail sales are now online. Forrester predicts that by 2028, these sales will reach $6.8 Trillion and represent 24% of global retail sales.

Physical stores will remain important: 21.9 trillion of the $28.7 trillion in global retail sales in 2028 will still be offline.

Despite massive store closures and social distancing during the pandemic that boosted e-commerce growth, the last few years have seen a reversal with consumers returning to physical stores.
For 2024 and beyond, we expect online sales to regain their dynamism thanks to commercial offerings and generative AI initiatives.

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The growth of global e-commerce will be driven by:

  1. New and mature channels: The rise of online marketplaces, social commerce, online grocery shopping, click-and-collect services, fast trade, direct selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will significantly increase online sales.
  2. E-commerce buyer maturity: Advanced economies like South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States are in the lead thanks to high Internet penetration and good digital literacy. Emerging markets are rapidly catching up, driven by the widespread adoption of smartphones, mobile commerce and young populations. Marketplaces like Allegro, Flipkart, Lazada, Mercado Libre, and Shopee are expanding access to developing economies.
  3. Innovative payment solutions: Digital wallets and account-to-account (A2A) transfers are revolutionizing the global e-commerce landscape by enabling smooth, secure, and convenient transactions. Digital wallets allow for fast and secure purchases with built-in loyalty programs, while A2A transfers offer low-cost, fast, and secure direct banking transactions.
Our recently published report, “Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028", provides historical data dating back to 2014 and a five-year forecast of total retail sales, online and offline in local currencies and U.S. dollars for 40 countries representing 88% of global GDP.
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